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Human activity pulling the plug on a vital carbon sink

Under better conditions coastal ecosystems might be the ace in the hole to mitigate climate change, but human activity is significantly weakening their ability to naturally dampen the impacts of rising CO2 levels according to a new study by Sydney environmental scientists.

In a report being published in Global Change Biology,a research team from the University of Technology, Sydney has recommended that a high priority be placed on protecting and conserving seagrass, salt marsh and mangrove ecosystems.

An analysis of Botany Bay sediments has revealed that since European settlement their composition has changed from largely "blue" carbon sources like seagrasses, mangroves and salt marshes to microalgal sources resulting in an estimated 100-fold loss to their carbon capturing ability.

Lead author of the report, UTS School of the Environment marine ecologist Dr Peter Macreadie, said the research clearly showed the impact was human induced and not part of a natural cycle.

"In other words, we have severely hampered the ability of nature to help reset the planet's thermostat."

"In our study we go back in time, more than 6000 years, to see what effect humans have had on the ability of coastal ecosystems to mitigate climate change through the capture and storage of carbon. We wanted to know what the context was. Have these types of changes occurred in the past or is it unusual? Analysis of the layers of organic matter, or detritus, from two sites within Botany Bay shows that this is an unusual event."

Scientists believe that seagrasses, mangroves and saltmarshes – collectively known as macrophytes – are possibly the most intense carbon sinks on the planet due to their disproportionate ability to capture, and store carbon. However their estuarine habitats are under increasing and continual pressure from human settlement.

"It's something we've seen time and time again. Urbanisation around coastal ecosystems means more runoff and pollutants end up in estuarine habitats which leads to a process of eutrophication which promotes algal growth. Algae can thrive in degraded environments but are much less efficient at sequestering carbon than seagrasses," Dr Macreadie said.

Co-authors, Professor Peter Ralph from the UTS Plant Functional Biology and Climate Change Cluster and Professor of Earth Sciences Greg Skilbeck, said that the study emphasised the important role played by marine and estuarine sediments in sequestering carbon.

"Storage of carbon in sediments is essentially the reverse of fossil fuel use – putting the anthropogenically-used carbon back where it came from in the first place, or at least recognising it is there and not disturbing it," Professor Skilbeck said.

"This is further evidence that these habitats need to be protected from further degradation. We don't know what the risk is of the stored carbon, which has been in that state for possibly thousands of years, being released back into the atmosphere. Seagrass, mangrove and saltmarsh ecosystems should be included in carbon abatement schemes," Professor Ralph said.

Source: University of Technology, Sydney [November 16, 2011]

Environmental troubles growing in Mid-East Gulf region due to rapid coastal development

The rapid, large scale coastal development underway in the Middle East must be better planned and managed to avoid aggravating already "severe" degradation and losses in the fragile marine ecosystems shared by eight Gulf countries – Bahrain, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates – warns a new report today by the United Nations University.

The Palm Jebel Ali is a landmark commercial, residential, and tourism development for Dubai, which, along with the Waterfront project, will transform an area of empty desert and sea into a bustling international community, with an estimated population of 1.7 million people by 2020 [Credit: Nakheel Properties]

The report, by UNU's Canadian-based Institute for Water, Environment and Health, says fisheries and a broad range of other valuable resources and services provided by the Gulf's ecosystems are at risk of being lost because of inadequate environmental management.

Launched at UN headquarters in New York, the report is based on direct research and experience in the Gulf, and published literature. It says coastal development in wealthy Gulf countries has been so extensive and swift that "there has not been enough time to develop adequate regulatory, technical, and monitoring capacity to guide this growth appropriately."

Consequences include "severe loss and degradation of important habitats, including mangroves, seagrass beds, and coral reefs," greater pollution, and other environmental setbacks, says the report, warning of potential health problems and "the permanent loss of nursery grounds for commercial shellfish and fish species," among the troubles foreseen.

"Though focussed on the Gulf region, with its enormous new artificial islands and waterways, waterfront cities, ports and marinas, the report is relevant to other parts of the Middle East, to China, parts of South-East Asia, and elsewhere in the world where rapid coastal development is also underway," says co-author Peter F. Sale, Assistant Director of UNU-INWEH, citing UNEP predictions that as much as 91% of all temperate and tropical coasts will be heavily impacted by development by 2050.

Says the report: "The physical characteristics and semi-enclosed nature of the Gulf provide ideal conditions for accumulation of pollutants and may create the 'pollutant trap' common in other enclosed and semi-enclosed seas. Insufficient or unreliable data exist to be able to accurately estimate the impacts of increased pollution on the Gulf's marine environment."

"Relatively little information exists on the short and long-term environmental effects of coastal mega-projects," says lead author Hanneke Van Lavieren of UNU-INWEH. "Without good planning and careful consideration of existing coastal features, hydrodynamics and offshore seafloor conditions, the consequences of such developments could be severe and long lasting."

"It is unwise to continue this pace and scale of development without careful consideration of the likely impacts on the health of marine ecosystems and their capacity to continue to provide environmental goods and services that directly support human wellbeing. If care is not taken, the economic cost of losing valuable coastal ecosystems will be extremely high."

Needed in the region, according to the report:

Integrated, forward-looking management programs that protect vital coastal ecosystems, and adapt to a changing climate, while permitting economic growth and ensuring a better quality of life for all coastal dwellers.

An Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process that is scientifically rigorous, transparent, and applied by regulatory agencies with the capacity to enforce decisions and ensure compliance by the development industry -- an approach which recognizes that such assessments take time and that development must not proceed more quickly than the EIA process.

Faster scientific capacity development in the region. Over the past several years, among efforts underway by others, UNU-INWEH initiated a variety of training events in the region but substantial additional improvement is needed in terms of the number and calibre of national scientists and researchers, research institutions, available equipment and funding to sustain research and development. Greater scientific knowledge, including regional environmental databases, and greater capacity in coastal environmental management are also necessary to create sound national and regional strategies for development.

Additional legislation, at regional and national levels, directly linked to coastal development.

Says Ms. Van Lavieren: "Several agreements may relate in some way, but coverage is incomplete and incoherent. Current management strategies in the Gulf are ineffective and insufficient to ensure the future health of its marine and coastal resources."

She adds that communication and public awareness can be vital components of successful coastal management because they help build consensus and support for sustainable management initiatives while also ensuring that governments are responsive to environmental needs.

Dr. Sale notes that several Gulf countries "are in a unique position to provide a leadership role in this region given the availability of financial resources and the commitment towards environmental sustainability expressed by current leaders."

The report offers a wealth of information related to the region's growth and environmental conditions:

Growth

Countries bordering the Gulf have an annual population growth rate of 2.1%, roughly double the world average.

Pressure on coastal ecosystems is especially high in the smaller Gulf countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE, where residents either live entirely or almost entirely within 50 km of the coast. Some countries in the Gulf region have already developed more than 40% of their coastline.

Bahrain has expanded its land area by 91 km2, an 11% increase of its original land area, for industrial, recreational and residential purposes.

From 1999 to 2010, the coastline of Qatar doubled from 563 to 1239 km.

In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), four man-made coastal mega-islands (Palm Jebel Ali, Palm Jumeirah, Palm Deira and The World) will add 439 km of shoreline and approximately 120 km2 of land.

Wastewater and other pollution

Untreated and unused treated wastewater is frequently dumped directly into the Gulf or riverbeds and wetlands where it then infiltrates into shallow aquifers and eventually enters coastal waters.

Enormous quantities of industrial, agricultural and domestic effluents substantially heighten the risk of contamination.

The high concentration of offshore oil installations, tankers and terminals have made the Gulf's marine and coastal ecosystems some of the most threatened in the world by oil pollution. The region experiences "persistently high levels of hydrocarbon pollution throughout the Gulf, predominantly along the Iranian coastline."

Meanwhile, between 70 and 90% of the freshwater supply of the Gulf's fast-growing population depends on desalination plants, which delivers toxic brine into the Gulf.

Fisheries and reefs

Some 70% of the Gulf's original 3,800 km2 reef cover is considered lost; all but 3% of what remains is either threatened or at a critical stage of degradation. Remaining reefs in the Gulf "are likely to degrade or disappear entirely within the next decade unless aggressive steps are taken to ameliorate the impacts of development."

After oil and gas, fisheries represent the region's most important natural resource, and the most important renewable resource. In the Gulf, trade in fish products accounted for US$ 996 million in 2007 and fishing (including aquaculture) employs some 250,000 people while accounting directly or indirectly for the livelihoods of 1 million residents.

Despite existing fishing regulations, poor enforcement has meant that the effort has not been controlled and many fishery species are in peril due to overexploitation.

"Inadequate enforcement of law, ineffective management practices and lack of effective trans-boundary collaboration or global catch limits all contribute to fishery failure. Given the multitude of threats facing the Gulf's fish populations, a paradigm shift in the approach to fisheries management is needed," says Dr. Sale.

An expanding marine aquaculture industry will place increasing pressure on already vulnerable ecosystems and native species. The fact that this industry is not yet fully developed in this region provides a unique opportunity for Gulf countries to adopt responsible and sustainable aquaculture methods. In moving forward, countries should adopt a Gulf-wide strategic and collaborative approach.

The Gulf environment is low in fish species diversity, many of which are in peril due to overexploitation, pollution and the introduction of invasive species. Further environmental degradation and habitat loss caused by coastal development are compounding this threat.

Climate change

The highly populated and predominantly sandy, easily erodible and low lying coastal Gulf countries are especially vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise through direct inundation, erosion and salt water intrusion. Studies predict that most of the Gulf's coastal areas will be extensively inundated and large parts of shorelines will migrate inland; Qatar and the UAE will be particularly susceptible and other small Gulf countries (Bahrain and Kuwait) are also at risk.

The report urges Gulf countries to take urgent action to prepare for the potential impacts of climate change on coastal areas and resources, including adoption of national energy efficiency and renewable energy targets, promotion of the 'green building' concept and development and use of alternative and renewable energy sources. Furthermore, increased scientific knowledge and greater capacity within the field of climate change is needed to create sound national and regional strategies for adaptation which in turn are incorporated into national and regional development plans.

Source: United Nations University via EurekAlert! [November 16, 2011]

Triple threat paints grim future for frogs

Frogs, salamanders and other amphibians may eventually have no safe haven left on the globe because of a triple threat of worsening scourges, a new study predicts.

This undated handout photo provided by Christian Hof shows a marked Silverstoneia flotator. This species is currently not listed on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, because it is very common across its distribution which is located in Central America (mainly Costa Rica and Panama). However, according to our analyses the area where it occurs may become strongly affected by several of the major factors threatening amphibians, namely land-use change and the fungal disease chytridiomycosis. Frogs, salamanders and other amphibians have no safe haven left on the globe because of a triple threat of worsening scourges a new study predicts [Credit: AP Photo/Christian Hof]

Scientists have long known that amphibians are under attack from a killer fungus, climate change and shrinking habitat. In the study appearing online Wednesday in the journal Nature, computer models project that in about 70 years those three threats will spread, leaving no part of the world immune from one of the problems.

Frogs seem to have the most worrisome outlook, said study lead author Christian Hof of the Biodiversity and Climate Research Center in Frankfurt.

Meanwhile, federal scientists in the United States are meeting in St. Louis this week to monitor the situation and figure out how to reverse it.

Several important U.S. amphibian species - boreal toads in the Rocky Mountains and the mountain yellow legged frog in the Sierra Nevada Mountains - are shrinking in numbers, said zoologist Steve Corn, who is part of the U.S. Geological Survey's Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative. The western U.S. has the problem worse than the East.

About one-third of the world's amphibian species are known to be threatened with extinction, and 159 species already have disappeared, a 2008 international study found.

"It's no fun being a frog," said prominent biodiversity conservationist Stuart Pimm of Duke University, who wasn't part of Hof's study or the USGS effort. "They are getting it from all three different factors."

Hof's study was the first to look at projections of the three threats by geography and see if they overlap. While they overlap some, it's not nearly as much as expected. The wide distribution of threats leaves no refuge for amphibians.

The strongest threats seem to be where the most species of amphibians live, concentrating the potential loss of diversity, said Hof and Ross Alford, an amphibian expert at James Cook University in Australia, who wasn't part of the research.

The biggest threats are seen, mostly from climate change, to frogs and other amphibians in tropical Africa, northern South American and the Andes Mountains, areas which Hof calls "climate losers." In the northern Andes, which have the most number of frog species in the world, more than 160 frog species are at risk, he said.

Alford and other outside scientists said they thought Hof's work might be overly pessimistic. But studying the geographic distribution of amphibian threats in the future is important, they said.

Author: Seth Borenstein | Source: Associated Press [November 16, 2011]

Air pollution a culprit in worsening drought and flooding

Increases in air pollution and other particulate matter in the atmosphere can strongly affect cloud development in ways that reduce precipitation in dry regions or seasons.

A storm monitored by cloud radars provides key data for this study [Credit: Z. Li, University of Maryland]

This while increasing rain, snowfall and the intensity of severe storms in wet regions or seasons, according to results of a new study.

The research provides the first clear evidence of how aerosols--soot, dust and other particulates in the atmosphere--may affect weather and climate.

The findings have important implications for the availability, management and use of water resources in regions across the United States and around the world.

"Using a 10-year dataset of atmospheric measurements, we have uncovered the long-term, net impact of aerosols on cloud height and thickness and the resulting changes in precipitation frequency and intensity," says Zhanqing Li, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Maryland and lead author of a paper reporting the results.

The paper was published today in the journal Nature Geoscience. Co-authors are Feng Niu and Yanni Ding, also of the University of Maryland; Jiwen Fan of the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Yangang Liu of the U.S. Department of Energy Brookhaven National Laboratory; and Daniel Rosenfeld of The Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

"Aerosols' effects on cloud and precipitation development are key questions for scientific community," says Chungu Lu, program director in the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, which funded the research.

"The question is not only important for our understanding of the effects of natural processes and human activities on climate change, but for addressing issues in air pollution, disaster relief, water resource management and human weather modification."

In addition to the scope and timeframe of the research team's observations, the scientists matched their findings with results from a cloud-resolving computer model.

"Understanding interactions among clouds, aerosols and precipitation is one of the grand challenges for climate research in the decade ahead," says Tony Busalacchi, a scientist at the University of Maryland and chair of the Joint Scientific Committee of the World Climate Research Program.

"Findings from this study are a significant advance in our understanding of such processes, with implications for both climate science and sustainable development," says Busalacchi.

"We have known for a long time that aerosols impact both the heating and phase changes [such as condensing and freezing] of clouds, and that they can either inhibit or intensify clouds and precipitation," says Russell Dickerson, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Maryland.

A radar image of clouds; data from a decade of time played an important role in the results [Credit: ARM Climate Research Facility]

"What we have not been able to determine until now is the net effect," says Dickerson. "This study shows that fine particulate matter, mostly from air pollution, impedes gentle rains while exacerbating severe storms. It adds urgency to the need to control sulfur, nitrogen and hydrocarbon emissions."

According to Steve Ghan of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, "This work confirms what previous cloud modeling studies had suggested: that although clouds are influenced by many factors, increasing aerosols enhances the variability of precipitation, suppressing it when precipitation is light and intensifying it when it is strong.

"This complex influence is completely missing from climate models, casting doubt on their ability to simulate the response of precipitation to changes in aerosol pollution."

Aerosols are tiny solid particles or liquid particles suspended in air. They include soot, dust and sulfate particles and are what we commonly think of when we talk about air pollution.

Aerosols come, for example, from the combustion of fossil fuels, from industrial and agricultural processes and from the accidental or deliberate burning of fields and forests.

They can be hazardous to human health and the environment.

Aerosol particles also affect the Earth's surface temperature by reflecting light back into space.

The variable cooling and heating that results is, in part, how aerosols modify the stability that dictates atmospheric vertical motion and cloud formation.

Aerosols also affect cloud microphysics because they serve as nuclei around which water droplets or ice particles form.

Both processes can affect cloud properties and rainfall. Different processes may work in harmony or offset each other, leading to complex yet inconclusive interpretations, scientists say, of their long-term net effect.

Researchers agree that greenhouse gases and aerosol particles are two major agents dictating climate change.

The mechanisms of climate warming effects of increased greenhouse gases are clear: they trap solar energy absorbed at the Earth's surface and prevent it from being radiated as heat back into space.

The climate effects of increased aerosols are much less certain.

"This study demonstrates the importance and value of keeping a long record of continuous and comprehensive measurements to identify and quantify the important roles of aerosols in climate processes," says Steve Schwartz, a scientist at Brookhaven National Laboratory.

"While the mechanisms for some of these effects remain uncertain, the well-defined relationships discovered demonstrate their significance," says Schwartz. "Controlling for these processes in models remains a future challenge, but this study clearly points to important directions."

"The findings from ground measurements of long-term effects are consistent with the global effects revealed from satellite measurements reported in our separate study," says Li.

"They attest to the needs of tackling the climate and environmental changes that matter so much to our daily lives."

Source: National Science Foundation [November 14, 2011]

CO2 bonds in sea ice: Small living creatures with major impact

Due to the presence of salts, the freezing point of sea water is below zero. During freezing, channels in which the salt accumulates, so-called "brine channels," are formed in the ice. They serve as a habitat for microorganisms. Together with collegues, a scientist from the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf is currently analyzing the characteristics and distribution of these channels in which CO2 is bound by the organisms which, in turn, diminishes the greenhouse effect.

The high salt concentration permits the contents of brine channels to remain in a liquid state even at lower temperatures, and they serve as a habitat for microorganisms [Credit: Gerhard Dieckmann/Alfred Wegener Institute]

Under normal conditions, water freezes at zero degrees Celsius. But not salt water: Due to the presence of salts, the freezing point of sea water is below zero. And sea water tends to freeze unequally. During freezing, channels in which the salt accumulates, so-called "brine channels," are formed in the ice.

The high salt concentration permits the contents of these channels to remain in a liquid state even at lower temperatures, and they serve as a habitat for microorganisms. Together with colleagues, a scientist from the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) is currently analyzing the characteristics and distribution of these channels in which CO2 is bound by the organisms which, in turn, diminishes the greenhouse effect.

The existing microorganisms are called diatoms and are at the bottom of the food chain in the marine ecosystem of the polar region. They also convert about 20 percent of the global CO2. The scientists want to understand how the tiny channels and their dwellers are distributed in the ice, what structures they exhibit, and under which circumstances they change.

"Direct measurements of these structural properties are not possible without impairing the habitat," explains Dr. Sibylle Gemming from the HZDR. "That's why we're developing mathematical models which will be the basis for computer simulations." The comparison of simulated and measured properties will permit conclusions to be drawn about the channel formation process.

According to the scientists, the findings of their research could serve as input variables for global climate models. That is why German researchers from Dresden, Bremerhaven (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research within the Helmholtz Association), and Münster (Münster University of Applied Sciences) are also cooperating with colleagues from the Norwegian Polar Institute in Tromsø.

The project, which is subsidized by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) and the German Research Foundation (DFG), is headed by the quantum particle physicist Prof. Klaus Morawetz (Münster University of Applied Sciences).

Source: Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres [November 11, 2011]

Insects offer clues to climate variability 10,000 years ago

An analysis of the remains of ancient midges – tiny non-biting insects closely related to mosquitoes – opens a new window on the past with a detailed view of the surprising regional variability that accompanied climate warming during the early Holocene epoch, 10,000 to 5,500 years ago.

University of Illinois plant biology and geology professor Feng Sheng Hu collected core samples from Alaskan lakes. The abundance and diversity of midges buried in sediments offers a reliable record of temperature fluctuations over time [Credit: Feng Sheng Hu]

Researchers at the University of Illinois and the University of British Columbia looked at the abundance and variety of midge larvae buried in lake sediments in Alaska. Midges are highly sensitive to summer temperatures, so changes in the abundance of different species over time gave the scientists a reliable marker of temperature fluctuations over the last 10,000 years.

Northern high latitudes are thought to have been warmer than today during the early Holocene, a time of heightened solar irradiation as a result of Earth's axial tilt and orbit around the sun. The period is often referred to as the Holocene Thermal Maximum. Scientists hope to understand the ecological impacts of climate warming during that time to make better predictions about the effects of future warming. But several decades of research have yielded only ambiguous evidence of climate conditions in Alaska at that time.

The new analysis, conducted by University of Illinois doctoral student Benjamin Clegg with U. of I. plant biology and geology professor Feng Sheng Hu, who led the study, offers the first detailed record of temperature variation over the last 10,000 years in Alaska. The analysis reveals that the region was significantly cooler than expected during the early Holocene.

"This study shows that early Holocene warming did not occur everywhere in high latitudes, and exhibited important regional exceptions, even though the driving force behind it – solar input, in this case – was geographically uniform," said Clegg, who is now a postdoctoral researcher in Hu's lab.

The drivers of climate change during the early Holocene "were different than the greenhouse gases responsible for global warming today," Clegg said. "So we should not expect to see exactly the same spatial patterns of temperature anomalies in the next few decades as during the early Holocene."

The researchers hypothesize that solar warming during the early Holocene spurred atmospheric circulation patterns that contributed to extensive sea-ice off the Alaskan coast. That, and a treeless tundra over more of the land area than at present would have increased surface reflectivity, potentially contributing to the observed cooling, Clegg said.

"This study has important ecological and societal implications," Hu said. "Nonlinear responses such as those identified here constitute a major source of potential climate 'surprises' that make it more difficult to anticipate and prepare for future regional climate scenarios."

The findings appear in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Source: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [November 14, 2011]

Sea change can forecast South American wildfires

Tiny temperature changes on the Atlantic and Pacific oceans provide an excellent way to forecast wildfires in South American rainforests, according to UC Irvine and other researchers funded by NASA.

“It enables us three to five months in advance to predict the severity of the fire season,” said UCI assistant project scientist Yang Chen, lead author of a paper that will be published Friday, Nov. 11, in the journal Science.

Wildfires, once rare in tropical forests, have become a major threat to humans and biodiversity across an “arc of deforestation” in Brazil, Bolivia and Peru due to clear-cutting and agricultural burns. The study’s authors said the new findings could aid fire and public health officials, planners issuing burn permits, and broader efforts to stem climate change. Rainforests are vital carbon dioxide storage basins, and woodlands consumed by fire across the southern continent are responsible for about a quarter of the greenhouse gases released from forests globally.

“This work has very clear implications for conserving tropical forests,” said co-author James Randerson, UCI Earth system science professor. “During the 21st century, there are expectations that drought may intensify, and forests may become even more vulnerable. Understanding in advance whether you’re going to have an exceptionally bad year will become critically important for managing them.”

The prediction method is similar to that for storms. Just as sea surface temperatures can be harbingers of powerful Atlantic hurricanes or El Nino conditions that influence rainfall in California and elsewhere on the Pacific Rim, they can be used to model drought-inducing atmospheric changes. Utilizing archival satellite data from NASA, Chen and fellow scientists painstakingly plotted a decade of water temperature variations and wildfire duration and intensity across central South America.

They found that temperature increases of as little as a quarter of a degree Celsius on the Atlantic and a single degree on the Pacific matched up with more deadly blazes across broad swaths of the Amazon over the next year.

“These changes are slight, but they trigger big effects in these tropical forest ecosystems,” Chen said. Ocean temperatures affect atmospheric winds and clouds that can reduce or increase rainfall over the continent.

The scientists tested their theory by forecasting – based on water temperature readings – South America’s 2010 fire season and then checking actual data afterward. Their accuracy was striking. Last year saw the biggest temperature increases on both oceans and, several months later, far drier conditions on land.

“We predicted a massive spike in fires in 2010, and it occurred,” said Randerson, citing conflagrations across hundreds of miles. In one state, they had forecast worse fires than occurred, then learned later that officials there had sharply reduced clear-cutting the year before. Overall, while deforestation has declined in the past decade, wildfires have not because of prescribed farming burns that escape into nearby woods.

The scientists are compiling data for the 2012 fire season and plan to release their findings this winter for officials to use next year. The next step will be to see if the prediction method works for forests in Siberia, Indonesia and West Africa.

Source: University of California - Irvine [November 10, 2011]

Americans using more fossil fuels

American energy use went back up in 2010 compared to 2009, when consumption was at a 12-year low. The United States used more fossil fuels in 2010 than in 2009, while renewable electricity remained approximately constant, with an increase in wind power offset by a modest decline in hydroelectricity. There also was a significant increase in biomass consumption, according to the most recent energy flow charts released by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Wind power jumped from .70 quadrillion BTU, or quads, in 2009 to .92 quads in 2010. (A BTU or British Thermal Unit is a unit of measurement for energy and is equivalent to about 1.055 kilojoules) Most of that energy is tied directly to electricity generation and thus helps decrease the use of coal for electricity production. Biomass energy consumption rose from 3.88 quads to 4.29 quads. That increase was driven by ethanol use as a transportation fuel and a feedstock for industrial production. (The apparent decline in geothermal energy use is due to an accounting change by the Energy Information Administration.)

"We are still seeing the capacity additions from a wind energy boom come online," said. A.J. Simon, an LLNL energy systems analyst who develops the flow charts using data provided by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. "And renewable fuel mandates are driving the consumption of ethanol by cars and trucks."

Overall, U.S. energy use in 2010 equaled 98 quads compared to the 94.6 quads used in 2009. Most of the energy was tied to coal, natural gas and petroleum.

Energy use in the residential, commercial, industrial and transportation arenas all rose as well.

The majority of energy use in 2010 was used for electricity generation (39.49 quads), followed by transportation, industrial, residential and commercial consumption. "This is just a snapshot of how the energy system was used," Simon said. "Although it doesn't appear to change much from year-to-year, even small shifts can have big consequences for certain sectors of our economy."

As in previous years, coal was the major player in producing electricity, with nuclear and natural gas coming in second and third, respectively. But natural gas consumption by the electric sector grew 0.5 quads this year, driven by consistently low natural gas prices. Over the past six years, gas use in the electric sector has increased 25 percent.

Petroleum fuels continue to dominate the transportation sector.

Though carbon emissions in 2010 were higher than they were in 2009, Americans' carbon footprint has decreased over the past few years. The U.S. emitted 5,632 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2010, up from 5,428 in 2009, but down from the all time high of 6,022 in 2007. The decrease is due primarily to reduced energy consumption, but aided by a shift from coal to natural gas in the electric sector and adoption of renewable energy resources.

One metric ton of CO2 emissions is equivalent to 37.8 propane cylinders used for home barbecues or 2.1 barrels of oil consumed, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Author: Anne M Stark | Source: DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [November 09, 2011]

Modern ills threaten ancient Judean Hills springs

Springs in the Judean Hills that were the basis for agriculture as far back as the Second Temple era are drying up due to successive drought years and have become polluted, according to a study carried out this year.

Sataf pool [Credit: Jacob Solomon]

The study, conducted this spring by the Israel Nature and Parks Authority under the direction of the Water Authority, was the first of its kind in 30 years. It included 67 of the almost 90 springs in an area from Jerusalem in the east westward almost to Beit Shemesh.

Water quality and quantity, as well as the area surrounding each spring, were examined. The survey included the Sataf, Ein Hindak and Ein Lavan springs, all popular hiking spots, as well as the spring in the center of Abu Gosh.

The surveyors found water in only two-thirds of the springs. Of the springs with water, the flow rates were lower than in previous years and in one out of three springs the water quality was poor or fair.

The surveyors pointed to several consecutive low-rainfall years as the main reason for the low water levels.

Teens enjoying the new pools built over Beit El's mysterious spring [Credit: Emil Salman]

Six of the past eight years met the criteria for drought years. Last winter, for example, saw only 60 percent of the average annual rainfall in the region.

In some cases, intensive construction near the springs contributed to the dearth of water: The increase in paved surfaces, such as roads and even gas stations, means rainwater cannot percolate through concrete and asphalt on the surface down to the water-bearing layer from which it would otherwise emerge as a spring.

Water quality is affected by pollution, mainly sewage. The surveyors say they believe fertilizer runoff has compromised the water quality in the Ein Kobi spring.

Ein Lavan Spring [Credit: Travel Israel]

The springs in the Judean Hills have been essential for traditional agriculture for thousands of years, beginning with the first inhabitants who dug tunnels and channels to bring the water to the crops they grew on the terraced hillsides.

Last year the Israel World Heritage Committee recommended that the terraced fields in the Judean Hills be classified as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The proposal has not yet been submitted.

The authors of the spring survey want the health and environmental protection ministries to improve sewage treatment facilities to minimize contamination of the springs. They also recommend increased protection of the vegetation near the springs as well as conservation management.

Author: Zafrir Rinat | Source: Haaretz [October 27, 2011]

Conservation scientists 'unanimous' in expectations of serious loss of biological diversity

The number of species recognized as endangered is ever increasing and a new study by a University of York academic, published in Conservation Biology, reveals the unanimity among conservation scientists of expectations of a major loss of biological diversity. The survey also shows a growing acceptance of controversial strategies such as 'triage' -- a decision to prioritise resources and not to intervene to save some highly threatened species.

The WWF now estimates that biodiversity has declined by more than a quarter in the last 35 years [Credit: iStockphoto/Tammy Peluso]

"As with climate change the large level of investment needed if loss of biodiversity is to be stopped will result in an increase of public and political scrutiny of conservation science," said study author Dr. Murray Rudd from the Environment Department at the University of York. "That makes it important to show how much scientific consensus there is for both the problems and possible solutions."

583 individuals who had published papers in 19 international journals took part in Dr Rudd's survey via email. The survey sought to gather opinions on the expected geographic scope of declining biological diversity before posing 16 questions to rank levels of agreement with statements that explored authors' values, priorities, and geographic affiliation and their support of potential management actions.

"The survey posed the key questions facing conservation science: why people care, how priorities should be set, where our efforts should be concentrated and what action we can take. Scientists were also asked about a range of potentially controversial statements about conservation strategies to gauge shifting opinions," he said.

The results revealed that 99.5 per cent of responders felt that a serious loss of biological diversity is either 'likely', 'very likely', or 'virtually certain'. Agreement that loss is 'very likely' or 'virtually certain' ranged from 72.8 per cent of authors based in Western Europe to 90.9% for those in Southeast Asia.

Tropical coral ecosystems were perceived as the most seriously affected by loss of biological diversity with 88.0 per cent of respondents who were familiar with that ecosystem type gauging that a serious loss is 'very likely' or 'virtually certain'.

"When considering conservation values and priorities the scientists said understanding interactions between people and nature was a priority for maintaining ecosystems," said Rudd. "However, they largely rejected cultural or spiritual reasons as motivations for protecting biodiversity. They also rejected 'human usefulness', suggesting many do not hold utilitarian views of ecosystem services."

Respondents to this survey had more unanimity on the human role in loss of biological diversity than respondents to a recent survey on climate change. In this survey, 79.1 per cent of respondents stated that acceleration of the loss of biological diversity by human activities is virtually certain. In the other survey, by comparison, 61.9 per cent thought climate change was underway, whereas 55.1 per cent believed it to be accelerated by humans.

The respondents to Rudd's survey were also asked to consider conservation triage, when, given limited resources, a decision may be made not to intervene to save a highly threatened species. Triage has long been considered controversial among conservation scientists. Yet 50.3 per cent and 9.3 per cent of scientists agree or strongly agree that criteria for triage decisions should be established.

"Understanding the degree of consensus within the scientific community will help policy makers to interpret scientific advice, improving the likelihood of successful of conservation initiatives," concluded Rudd. "The extremely high level of consensus demonstrated by these results underlines the urgency of preventing further damage to the natural world."

Source: University of York via AlphaGalileo [November 08, 2011]

One If by Land, Two If by Sea? Climate Change 'Escape Routes'

One if by land, two if by sea? Results of a study published this week in the journal Science show how fast animal and plant populations would need to move to keep up with recent climate change effects in the ocean and on land. The answer: at similar rates.

Escaping climate change: one if by land, two if by sea? No, according to recent results [Credit: Hugh Brown, SAMS]

The study was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), and performed in part through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis at the University of California at Santa Barbara.

"That average rates of environmental change in the oceans and on land are similar is not such a surprise," says Henry Gholz, program director in NSF's Division of Environmental Biology.

"But averages deceive," Gholz says, "and this study shows that rates of change are at times greater in the oceans than on land--and as complex as the currents themselves."

Greenhouse gases have warmed the land by approximately one degree Celsius since 1960. That rate is roughly three times faster than the rate of ocean warming. These temperatures have forced wild populations to adapt--or to be on the move, continually relocating.

Although the oceans have experienced less warming overall, plants and animals need to move as quickly in the sea as they do on land to keep up with their preferred environments.

Surprisingly, similar movement rates are needed to out-run climate change. On land, movement of 2.7 kilometers (1.6 miles) per year is needed and in the oceans, movement of 2.2 kilometers (1.3 miles) per year is needed.

"Not a lot of marine critters have been able to keep up with that," says paper co-author John Bruno, a marine ecologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. "Being stuck in a warming environment can cause reductions in the growth, reproduction and survival of ecologically and economically important ocean life such as fish, corals and sea birds."

"These results provide valuable insights into how climate will affect biological communities worldwide," says David Garrison, director of NSF's Biological Oceanography Program.

The analysis is an example of the value of synthesis research centers, Garrison says, in addressing society's environmental challenges.

"With climate change we often assume that populations simply need to move poleward to escape warming, but our study shows that in the ocean, the escape routes are more complex," says ecologist Lauren Buckley of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, also a co-author of the paper.

"For example, due to increased upwelling, marine life off the California coast would have to move south [rather than north] to remain in its preferred environment."

"Some of the areas where organisms would need to relocate the fastest are important biodiversity hot spots, such as the coral triangle region in southeastern Asia," says lead author Mike Burrows of the Scottish Association of Marine Science.

Whether by land or by sea, according to these results, all will need to be on the fly.

Source: National Science Foundation [November 07, 2011]

Sea-life paddling fast to survive climate change

Climate change is subtly altering average yearly and seasonal temperatures on land and water and looks set tohave a significant impact on Northern Ireland’s coastal ecology, according to Dr David Schoeman, a University of Ulster marine scientist and co-author of an important international study into ocean warming to be published today in the world's most authoritative scientific research journal, Science.

Having mapped the spread northwards of slowly rising average sea and land temperatures, the study projects thatover the next 50 years some marine life and land-based plant and animal species will relocate to “fresh comfort zones” around the north coast -- that is, to areas with temperatures they need for survival.

Experts from the UK, USA, Australia, Spain, Germany and Denmark who compiled the study are calling for greater understanding of humankind’s dependence on marine biodiversity and the need for more research funding to provide the knowledge on which long-term response-planning can be based.

The study, which uses global temperature records to investigate the likely climate-change responses of marine life in terms of adapting and relocating, is published today.

Since 1960, land temperatures have risen by 1.2 ºCelsius while sea temperatures have increased by just one-third of that.

The report suggests that while on paper the increase in temperatures seems small, there have already been ecological repercussions. Temperature bands are moving polewards, spring temperatures are arriving earlier and autumn temperatures are coming later.Other side-effects could be even more profound as global greenhouse gas emissions increase.

Dr Schoeman said: “Our study has very significant global, national and local dimensions – from flagging up concern about the future of coral life in parts of the western Pacific Ocean to heightening awareness about the spreading effects of warming around our owncoastline.”

The work was led by Dr Michael Burrows, from the Scottish Association for Marine Science, and Dr Schoeman,from the Environmental Sciences Research Institute at Ulster’s Coleraine campus, and was funded by the US National Science Foundation via the US National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California Santa Barbara.

The study shows that typical spring and autumn temperatures in the ocean are changing more rapidly than they are on land.

Regional variations mean that in many areas marine organisms must respond much more rapidly to changing climate than their counterparts on land. The study examined the speed and direction at which land and marine life must travel to remain in their preferred temperatures. Whereas fish can swim several kilometres, other bio-organisms such as coral are static.

Dr Schoeman said: “Corals are critically important for marine biodiversity because about a quarter of thespecies of fish that we know about in the ocean are associated with corals, as are many other forms of marine life.”

The world’s largest concentrations of corals are found in areas of the Pacific near Indonesia and the Philippines, an area also important for other marine biodiversity. For systems like this, the outlook is grim, he added.

Northern Ireland is in a fascinating position, Dr Schoeman explained. “The warming ocean should tend to shift species northwards along the Irish east and west coasts, converging on the north Antrim coast. Interestingly, temperatures are moving up the east coast at 5 km to10 km per year but at only half that rate up the west coast.”

“Across the land, temperatures are moving at anywhere between 2 km to 5 km per year in the east to over 20 km per year in the west. This suggests that land-bound species tracking temperature changes could arrive at the coast within decades.”

“Typical spring temperatures around Northern Ireland are arriving 1 to 2 days earlier each decade on the land and off the east coast, by a half to 1 day per decade earlier along the Antrim coast, but they are not really changing at all along the west coast, or even arriving a few days per decade later offshore to the northwest.”

“By contrast, typical autumn temperatures are arriving 2 to 5 days later all around Northern Ireland’s coast but are not shifting at all on land.”

“These complicated patterns may mean little to humans – after all, we’re talking about only a few days change per decade – but they can be important for the seasonal timing of ecological events, which are often quite precise.”

“Despite scientific progress in so many areas, much remains to be discovered in the sea. We cannot allow out of sight to be out of mind. The sea provides us with many services that society still doesn’t fully appreciate, and without an understanding of the changes they are likely to face, we have little capacity to plan.”

Source: University of Ulster [November 03, 2011]